Friday, April 17, 2015

Idaho Falls market deemed low risk for real estate investment

Employment analysis for the Idaho Falls market. Note the increase in local retail trade jobs.
Local Market Monitor, a Cary, N.C.-based company that keeps track of fundamentals in 300 markets across the United States, has identified Idaho Falls as a medium-to-low-risk place for anyone looking to invest in rental property.

According to the summary for March, home values in the market are forecast to increase 5 percent over the next year, slightly behind the national forecast of 5.7 percent.

“There was a modest housing boom and bust, but home prices have been flat in recent years,” it said. “Rents are very low. Population growth has been average. Job growth will increase housing demand, but mainly for rentals. Home prices were flat in the past year. Expect an improving housing market the next few years.”

Here are other highlights of the report:

Job Growth
In the past 12 months, jobs in this market have grown by 3.4 percent. This compares to a national increase of 2.4 percent.

Home Prices 
Home prices in this market peaked in Q1 2008 at $190,976. Since their peak, prices have fallen by 13%. In the last 12 months, prices have gone up by 2 percent. The average home price in this market is currently $165,245.

The population in this market grew 0.6% in 2013, while the US population grew 0.7%.

In 2013, net population migration was -0.6%. While migration tends to be small, it can have a large effect on demand for real estate.

We forecast rents to increase 14 percent over the next three years in this market, to an average of $877 per month, partly due to higher inflation.

Housing Permits
Total housing permits in February 2015 were up 172 percent from last year. Single family permits were up 172 percent.

Jobs were up 3.4 percent in the past year, compared to the national gain of 2.5 percent..

The Unemployment Rate in January 2015 was 4.2% versus 5.2% last year.
The Financial Capitalization Rate shows the average return on investments with similar perceived risk as residential investment properties - such as BBB corporate bonds - but without taking into consideration the special local risks measured by the Local Market Risk Premium.